Delhi is calculating to kill many birds with one stone using Hasina

India's official position

Delhi's official position on Sheikh Hasina's stay in India remains unchanged. In the past few days, several top officials of India's Ministry of External Affairs and Ministry of Home Affairs have said that India neither invited Sheikh Hasina to give her shelter, nor is it forcibly driving her out now.

A senior official from South Block commented, 'If he wants to return to the country after assessing the situation, he will return. And if he thinks he will stay in India, then so be it.'

The interview given to Reuters

In an interview given to the international news agency Reuters last week, Hasina said that she is planning to return to the country with the party's leaders and activists next December and wants to surrender to the court.

He further said that even knowing that he could be arrested or even hanged upon returning to the country, he has decided to return.

Delhi's observation and 'many birds with one stone'

BBC has spoken to top Delhi government officials, analysts, former diplomats and Awami League leaders and activists taking shelter in India regarding Sheikh Hasina's statement. Two main issues have emerged from this discussion—

First, just because Sheikh Hasina said this does not mean he will return to Dhaka from India in December. His return will depend on how the situation unfolds in the intervening five months, how the Bangladesh government reacts, and what attitude the international community holds towards Hasina.

Second, although Hasina did not consult any foreign government before making this decision, observers agree that he did not make this statement without India's tacit consent. The Indian government also believes that this announcement does not harm them, but rather benefits them more. If Hasina returns, India will be relieved of two years of diplomatic discomfort. And even if he does not return, Delhi can say that Hasina wanted to return, but the Bangladesh government could not create a favorable environment. Therefore, this statement is being seen as akin to 'killing many birds with one stone', through which the ball has been pushed into the court of the Bangladesh government.

Behind-the-scenes bargaining and Delhi's calculation

Former Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka, Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, believes that Sheikh Hasina is serious about returning because his return is necessary to save the Awami League.

He said that if Hasina returns to Dhaka, he will appeal against the death sentence in court and may be kept in safe custody during the trial. It would not be surprising if there is behind-the-scenes bargaining between Delhi and Dhaka to ensure that security.

According to Delhi-based political analyst Joyanta Roychowdhury, Sheikh Hasina wants to send a message to the BNP that he will personally go and resist the attempt to ban the Awami League and make it irrelevant.

Attitude of leaders and activists

Among the thousands of Awami League leaders and activists who have taken shelter in India since August 2024, there has been a mixed reaction to Hasina's statement. Many leaders believe that the BNP government will not want Hasina to return in the current complex political situation.

There is doubt about how many will accompany Hasina if he returns to the country. Some say they are ready to return by plane with the leader.

However, a former cabinet member said that there will be international attention on Sheikh Hasina's trial, but ordinary leaders and activists, if they return to the country, will immediately go to jail on false cases, which no one will even know about. So it is difficult to say right now how many will eventually accompany him.